NC State -2 3.3% play
Very interesting match up here with the PAC 12 vs. ACC. Pac 12 is actually 17-9 in bowl games vs. the ACC, 45-24 all time vs. the ACC, and 21-5 straight up since 2010. Both coaches and coaching staff are fully motivated to get a win, and NC State has to travel across the country to play in San Diego. Advantage UCLA in that department.
However, UCLA’s best DL declared for NFL, top player in the secondary has COVID, and a couple other players are out on this side of the ball. It’s also a terrible matchup for UCLA whose defensive strength is vs. the run, and they’re terrible against the pass despite playing an average passing offense ranked 78th in QB rating. NC State ranks 19th behind Devin Leary who has played exceptionally well all year, and rank 21st in turnover percentage per drive. UCLA went 0-4 vs. top 50 ypp offenses and defenses this year, and lost to Fresno, Arizona State, Oregon, and Utah. On the flip side NC State went 4-0 vs teams who had a +0.5 ypp differential or more winning by 6, 15, 14, and 4. I like the fact that this NC State has players returning for next year stating that they have “unfinished” business.
NC State has faced a few top offenses like UCLA, and given up ton of yardage to Sam Howell and Micale Cunningham who are both mobile QB’s, but they won those games anyway. They also should have beaten Wake Forest, but turned the ball over which was unusual for them. DTR can have a huge game if he wants, but Devin Leary and this offense should be able to move the ball on this UCLA defense that only faced two teams in the top 50 in passing offense, and lost both. UCLA did not beat a single team with a greater than .500 record all year.
